NFL: DegenerateGambler's Week 10 Picks

As some of you may be finding out the hard way, the nickname "DegenerateGambler" is well deserved. An 0-3 Lockdown record in Week 9 is really the story of my gambling career. Is this the week I turn it around? You may want to double up on this week's picks because I have a good feeling about it.

Home teams in CAPS; Picks in RED

LOCKDOWN PICKS

Broncos -9 RAIDERS
Over the past few weeks the Broncos have silenced the critics. Their offense has shown some life and all of the sudden the defense has room to breathe. That isn't good news for Raider Nation. Oakland is a mess...
The Pick: I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't a mirror image of the Oakland's Monday night performance. Lay the 9 and take the BRONCOS on the road.

Chiefs -1 DOLPHINS
Last week I mentioned Miami's 0-7 record against the spread. A week later they are 1-7 ATS, with last week's drubbing of the Bears accounting for their only win. Joey Harrington has helped stabilize the Dolphins offense, but the inconsistent running game is a concern.
The Pick: I do not see a repeat performance for Miami in Week 10. I'm taking the CHIEFS.

Packers +5.5 VIKINGS
A couple of numbers that make this one an easy pick... The Vikings are 5-1 ATS versus NFC opponents this season... The Packers? 2-4. Minnesota is also boasting 4-1 record ATS versus the Packers over the past 3 seasons.
The Pick: You guessed it.. I'm going with the VIKINGS at home.


All the rest...
Texans +10.5 JAGS
Chargers -1.5 BENGALS
Browns +8 FALCONS
Ravens -7.5 TITANS
Bills +12 COLTS
Saints +4 STEELERS
Redskins +7 EAGLES
Bears +2.5 GIANTS
Jets +10.5 PATRIOTS
49ers +5.5 LIONS
Rams +3 SEAHAWKS
Cowboys -7 ARIZONA

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bucs +9.5 PANTHERS

Season Lockdown Record: 1-7-1

NFL: DegenerateGambler's Week 9 Picks

As I drag myself to my computer, uncurling from the fetal position I have been in for countless days, I dread even looking at the lines for Week 9. But this is no time to throw in the towel. We are on the board with a lockdown record of 1-2 against the spread in Week 8 of the NFL.

Oh, and enough with all of the analysis. I didn’t become who I am today, for better or worse, by over-thinking and second-guessing. This week I am going with the something I trust more than all the stats in the world… my gut. And I have a lot of gut to go around.

Is this simply the ramblings of a DegenerateGmabler who is on the ropes, or am I thinking with a clear head? Only one way to find out… bring on the matchups!

Home team in CAPS - Picks in Red


LOCKDOWN PICKS

Falcons -5.5 LIONS
Atlanta is 5-2 against the spread (ATS), including 2-1 ATS in road games. That may not seem like an overpowering number, but their three road opponents were the Panthers, Saints and Bengals. Detroit is 2-5 ATS… that’s as far as I need to go there.

The Pick: I’m riding the Mike Vick train. Lay the 5.5 points and take the FALCONS.

Dolphins +13.5 BEARS
The Dolphins are fairing even worse than me this season. I’m not even going to bore you with the details…

The Pick: Combine Miami’s atrocious 0-7 record ATS, with the Bears knack prove me wrong each and every week, and my decision is easy. Da BEARS!

Vikings -4.5 49ERS
This one seemed too easy, and at second glance it feels like a trap. But I promised I wouldn’t second-guess myself. Minnesota is 2-1 ATS on the road and a pretty impressive 5-2 ATS overall. As for the 49ers, well, they just aren’t very good.

The Pick: After taking a pounding at the hands of the Patriots, Minnesota will be looking to take out some aggression. Lucky for them, Alex Smith is no Tom Brady… Give up the 4.5 points and consider yourself paid! VIKINGS in a route.


Chiefs +2.5 RAMS
Bengals +3 RAVENS
Texans +13 GIANTS
Titans +10 JAGUARS
Cowboys -3 REDSKINS
Packers +3 BILLS
Saints -1 BUCS
Browns +12.5 CHARGERS
Broncos +2 STEELERS
Colts +3 PATRIOTS

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Oakland +7.5 SEAHAWKS


Season Lockdown Record: 1-4-1

NFL: DegenerateGambler’s Week 7 Picks

After 6 weeks, we are starting to get a feel for what all of the teams are about. Everyone has played at least 5 games, including at least one divisional game. Predicting the outcome of an NFL game is definitely not an exact science, so it is always nice to have that info in your back pocket. This is a tough week, but let’s take a look at what I went with –

(Home teams in CAPS; Picks are in Red)
Lines as of 12:01 a.m., Thursday October 19th

Lockdown Picks

Chargers -5 CHIEFS

With a top-tier offense and arguably the best defense in the league, the Chargers look to put the Chiefs in a deep hole in the AFC West. San Diego’s front seven is a nightmare for any opposing offense, and this is magnified when that offense is in Kansas City. The losses of Al Saunders at offensive coordinator and Trent Green under center have been quite apparent, going from a top scoring offense to only managing 17 points per contest in 2006. With an inexperienced QB in Huard and a pedestrian offensive line, the Chargers D could have a field day. The O-Line will be forced to stay inside to contain two of the best defensive players in the league in Merriman and Castillo. This should mean Tony Gonzalez will act as a sixth lineman for most of the game to protect the outside rush of an underrated linebacker crew. Oh… and did I mention a man named L.T.?

Bottom line: I’m looking no further than the defense. The Chargers are holding their opponents to nearly 70 rushing ypg. Once they shut down Larry Johnson and if they take an early lead, they should have no problem tormenting Huard.

The Pick: Lay the 5 points and take the CHARGERS




Eagles -4.5 BUCS

Coming off an emotional loss to the upstart Saints, the Eagles can’t waste any time getting back in the win column. Starting QB Donavan McNabb is having a career year, while Tampa Bay’s opening day QB is having a hard time holding onto his organs. The Bucs will likely put the rest of their season on the shoulders of rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski, who led the team to their first win of the season just a week ago. With a defense that is showing it’s age, the Bucs could have a hard time controlling an Eagles attack that is racking up over 400 total ypg.

Bottom line: With the scoring defenses nearly identical, I am focusing on offense. The Eagles are scoring about 30 ppg to the Bucs 12.5 ppg.

The Pick: I don’t think this one is close. Give up the points and take the EAGLES.




Panthers +3 BENGALS

This is a tale of two cities. Cincinnati is coming off two straight losses, each of which they have scored only 13 points. Carolina, on the other hand, has won 4 straight since getting Steve Smith back from his hammy problem. Rudi Johnson can’t find any running lanes, rushing for an average of 55 yards over the last three games. With Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Bengals always pose a big threat through the air, yet they are only putting up 183 passing ypg. The Panthers on the other hand have a very balanced offense, making plays through the air and rushing for 165 ypg.

Bottom line: The Panthers need a win this week to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South. They have one of the best teams top to bottom in the NFL and can play just about any style game that they are faced with.

The Pick: I would take them straight up, so if you are going to give me 3 points, I will take the PANTHERS every time.



Jaguars -9.5 TEXANS
Patriots -5.5 BILLS
Steelers -3 FALCONS
Packers +5 DOLPHINS
Lions +4 N.Y. JETS
Broncos -4.5 BROWNS
Redskins +9.5 COLTS
Vikings +6.5 SEAHAWKS
Cardinals -3 RAIDERS

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Giants +3 COWBOYS

Sorry Bill… stop yelling at me!!! There is a link at the bottom if you have a comment about my picks… Some guys have no respect.


In any case, good luck to everyone this week and don't forget to check back every Thursday.

NFL: PREVIEW - DegenerateGambler’s Weekly NFL Picks

So, it’s Week 7 in the NFL and your wallet has taken a hit. Any normal person would probably look at this scenario and say, “I can’t afford to keep doing this…this just isn’t for me”. The problem is that if you are reading this article, you are probably more like me, “I can’t afford to keep doing this… I’ve got to win this week”. You are out looking for some new information... an inside tip… a new person to blame for your 2-12 record against the spread last week. More importantly, you are looking for a way to recoup 6 weeks of losses.

Well ladies and gentleman, I may not be the answer you are looking for, but if all of this sounds familiar what have you got to lose? I may be a degenerate gambler like our friend Pete here, but they don't call me Charlie Hustle Jr. for nothing.

Each week the rest of the season, I will give you an inside look at my top 3 games which I will consider my “Lockdown Picks of the Week”. I will also give you my prediction for all of the remaining games. Picks will be available every Thursday.

Finally, and most importantly, if you disagree with any of my picks, I would love to hear why. Don’t be afraid to use the Comment link at the bottom of the article. Give myself and other readers a chance to hear what you have to say.

Listen, I think I hear something... (cha-ching, cha-ching)... it's the sound of you cashing in!

Thanks and good luck the rest of the season!

Yours truly,
DegenerateGambler