Thursday, November 02, 2006

NFL: DegenerateGambler's Week 9 Picks

As I drag myself to my computer, uncurling from the fetal position I have been in for countless days, I dread even looking at the lines for Week 9. But this is no time to throw in the towel. We are on the board with a lockdown record of 1-2 against the spread in Week 8 of the NFL.

Oh, and enough with all of the analysis. I didn’t become who I am today, for better or worse, by over-thinking and second-guessing. This week I am going with the something I trust more than all the stats in the world… my gut. And I have a lot of gut to go around.

Is this simply the ramblings of a DegenerateGmabler who is on the ropes, or am I thinking with a clear head? Only one way to find out… bring on the matchups!

Home team in CAPS - Picks in Red


Falcons -5.5 LIONS
Atlanta is 5-2 against the spread (ATS), including 2-1 ATS in road games. That may not seem like an overpowering number, but their three road opponents were the Panthers, Saints and Bengals. Detroit is 2-5 ATS… that’s as far as I need to go there.

The Pick: I’m riding the Mike Vick train. Lay the 5.5 points and take the FALCONS.

Dolphins +13.5 BEARS
The Dolphins are fairing even worse than me this season. I’m not even going to bore you with the details…

The Pick: Combine Miami’s atrocious 0-7 record ATS, with the Bears knack prove me wrong each and every week, and my decision is easy. Da BEARS!

Vikings -4.5 49ERS
This one seemed too easy, and at second glance it feels like a trap. But I promised I wouldn’t second-guess myself. Minnesota is 2-1 ATS on the road and a pretty impressive 5-2 ATS overall. As for the 49ers, well, they just aren’t very good.

The Pick: After taking a pounding at the hands of the Patriots, Minnesota will be looking to take out some aggression. Lucky for them, Alex Smith is no Tom Brady… Give up the 4.5 points and consider yourself paid! VIKINGS in a route.

Chiefs +2.5 RAMS
Bengals +3 RAVENS
Texans +13 GIANTS
Cowboys -3 REDSKINS
Packers +3 BILLS
Saints -1 BUCS
Browns +12.5 CHARGERS
Broncos +2 STEELERS

Oakland +7.5 SEAHAWKS

Season Lockdown Record: 1-4-1

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